Thursday, February 29, 2024

Tornado Warnings to Snowfall: How Often?


February 28 featured temperatures in the lower and mid 60s with thunderstorms. A handful of thunderstorm warnings with ONE tornado warning in Knox County around 6am February 28.  This tied the earliest tornado warning of the season (2011 was the other year)


Severe weather across multiple states.


Temperatures dropped quickly from mid 60s to the 20s by early evening across northern Ohio. Scattered snow showers develop in the evening with a heavy band of lake effect by February 29 between 5 and 8am.


The drop in temperature impacted the entire Mid-west, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.  Here is an animation showing the temperatures from 2:45pm Tuesday 2/27 through 2:45am Wednesday 2/29:


Radar loop for the northern Ohio shoreline the following morning (Thursday AM) shows a significant band of lake effect snow:


How often do we go from TORNADO WARNINGS to SNOW in 24 hours? Here is the short list:


How about TORNADO WARNINGS to SNOW in 48+ hours?


So its been 7 years -- March 3, 2017 -- since we had measurable snow 24 hours after a tornado warning!




Friday, February 09, 2024

How Cloudy Was January?


January cloud cover was extremely extensive and long lasting across northern Ohio. Here are the top 10 cloudiest January in Cleveland (based on overcast observations):

When we break down the month into 4 cloud cover categories, this is what we found comparing January 2024 to the last 10 years:  26 of the 31 days had overcast skies. No clear days. 


How did northern Ohio cloud cover compare to the rest of the US in January?
Here is the average amount of cloud cover:  Typically the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, mid-west and portions of New England are the cloudiest locations.


Map Courtesy: Brian Brettschneider

Here is the ACTUAL cloud cover rankings for January:

The cloudiest regions were southern Michigan, western New York, southern Florida and yes, northern Ohio.  In fact, southern Florida's cloud cover was top 5 all time. Northern Ohio was 3rd cloudiest.

Map Courtesy: Brian Brettschneider

For comparison, this was the cloud cover ranks nationally for last year (2023)


2002 was one of the least cloudy January months in northern Ohio since the early 1950s.  Here was the cloud cover ranking nationally for comparison.



So why so much cloud cover this January vs other years?

Here is a loop showing where the HIGHS and LOWS are located for each day in January. Blue colors are low pressure, warmer colors are high pressure.  The lower the pressure, the more rising air and typically more cloud cover.
Active Pacific jet stream throughout the month. Early January, jet was across northern Pacific with the southern branch across Mexico and the southern US. By mid month, they partially merged then the southern branch become more dominant. This jet stream configuration kept these frequent low pressure system moving across the central US and Great Lakes. 

Great Lakes ice cover is well below average. This has kept the relatively mild water exposed to the frequent weather systems during the month. While the Great Lakes are not solely responsible for the cloud cover, they have contributed to it.








Monday, January 22, 2024

Snow Totals From Last Week's Storm?

Snow started early Friday morning and ended late Saturday evening/night.


Here are the individual totals for each region of northern Ohio:








Seasonal Snow Totals Through January 22 - Last 10 Winters:


Comparison between last winter and this winter through January 22 across northern Ohio.




Thursday, January 11, 2024

Deepest Storm in 30 Years Tuesday!


How did I miss this.  Tuesday's panhandle system was deep but little did I know that it was VERY deep. Using the Iowa Mesonet site (a fantastic meteorological resource for everything data/graphing you can think of) I was able to check the lowest pressures for each year.  at roughly 7pm, the air pressure dropped to 978.4 mB or 28.89" This ranks the 4th lowest since 1970 and the deepest since January 14, 1992! So mark your calendar, January 9, 2024 at 7pm EST.


This also caused 60+ mph winds across parts of northern Ohio.



The next deep panhandle storm will arrive Friday perhaps as deep as the Tuesday system. Center of the storm tracks across NW Ohio Friday evening 1/12/2024. Expect 50+ mph wind gusts yet again.





Here is where this ranks since 1970. The values below are from the Iowa Mesonet site which might be slightly different. Top 25 listed here.

Here is the daily average surface pressure contour for the top 4 on the list. The current storm at the bottom.
January 26, 1978
April 2, 1979

January 14, 1992


January 9, 2024

Monday, January 08, 2024

How Many Days WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL Thus Far?

Our winter outlook back in late October featured a very slow start to winter with above normal temperatures for December. So far, that has worked out.

Interestingly since December (through Jan 10), we've only had 3 DAYS BELOW NORMAL (high & low average). Looking back I can't find a winter with this few BELOW NORMAL days in northern Ohio. Graphic shows last 30 years (left side) with a few notable historically warm/cold winters on right.



About 80% of Ohio is running 5-10 degrees ABOVE NORMAL since the start of December.


Average temperatures across the entire mid-west, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is ranked close if not the warmest on record.

Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Temperature Ranks Since December 1

In fact temperatures across roughly half of the US are now ranked in the top 10 warmest thus far.

Temperature Ranks (Dec 1 to Jan 7)

Friday, December 22, 2023

How Often Do We See Snow on Christmas? Cold?

Maybe you remember the super warm Christmas back in 1982 when we reached 66° degrees. Perhaps you remember the following Christmas when the high temperatures was 1°. Most of remember the brutally cold period leading up to Christmas last winter (2022).


What was the Christmas weather like when you were a kid?  I created this handy chart showing the Christmas weather history for northern Ohio going back to 1940.

Enjoy!







Monday, December 18, 2023

December 18 - Forecast Discussion - First Snow in Ages!


As of this writing (December 18 at 7am) we haven't seen shovel-able snowfall since November 28th. 

The last time this happened was...well, last year.  Here are the years where we saw less snow between Nov 28 and Dec 17. Notice how the occurrences were more sporadic before the 2000s. 


Snowfall departures across the US are also running well below normal. Interesting that portions of northern Missouri, central Kansas, North Dakota and parts of New England running well above normal.

Graphic Courtesy Ben Noll

Ohio Valley snowfall totals (as of December 15)